Tariffs aren’t the only thing damaging China’s economy

As pivotal trade talks between delegations from the United States and China get under way this week, some economists are taking issue with President Donald Trump’s characterization of the impact that his trade sanctions have had on the Chinese economy.

Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday that the Trump tariffs were causing slower growth and raising the potential of political instability. He said China’s slowdown was a “big problem in their context of having a very big need to create millions of millions of jobs to hold down social unrest.”

However, “I would characterize the Chinese economy as slowing, for sure, but we wouldn’t blame it on the trade issue,” said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“I think China wants to get it resolved. Their economy’s not doing well,” Trump told reporters on Friday.

Trade and market expert say statements such as this lack two things: An acknowledgement that investor anxiety over the potential impact of a drawn-out trade war on the U.S. economy also contributed to market volatility that has sent equities plummeting over the past several weeks, and an understanding of the factors from which China’s economic woes stem.

“Today, both the U.S. and China are negatively affected by the current tensions,” said Ludovic Subran, global economist at Euler Hermes. “The big issue is really more the domestic economy and its transformation,” he said.

“There’s evidence that the latest round of economic reforms started to slow the economy before we got to the tariffs,” Christopher said. In terms of advancing a mix of expansionary and tightening policies, China is still tinkering with the balance. “They haven’t really found the right combination yet,” he said. “We think they’re still experimenting.”

A decrease in Chinese car sales is one key data point that has been misconstrued, China experts say. Automotive consulting firm ZoZoGo found that car sales in China reversed course last year and fell by 3 percent after roughly two decades of growth, and the country’s largest automotive trade group also has reported sinking sales figures in recent months.

Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that a temporary tax break spurred Chinese consumers to accelerate car-buying, and the subsequent falloff is a natural outcome of pulling forward demand.

Strong growth in Chinese exports to the U.S. for much of 2018 could indicate an acceleration of commerce as businesses scramble to get goods and manufacturing inputs over the border before any additional tariffs kick in.

“The trade flows alone don’t tell the whole story. Some of the strength of U.S. imports from China is the result of firms trying to ship products before more tariffs are applied, so it won’t last,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

As in the U.S., uncertainty over tariffs has weighed on the Chinese equity market as businesses hold off on investments until they know more about what the future holds. “But the trade war is not the main headwind that China’s economy is facing,” Williams said.

That headwind is tighter domestic financial policymaking, experts say. The Chinese government put sharp curbs on non-bank lending, which had fueled considerable growth in consumer spending, real estate investment and local infrastructure projects, but also ratcheted up the risk factor.

“I think the slowdown is primarily a result of the slowdown in credit,” Lardy said. “By the end of last year, credit was growing at the slowest pace in 10 years,” which has crimped spending, investment and weighed on the Chinese stock market.

More recently, Beijing has been walking back some of these tightening policies to promote a more stimulative economic environment: On Friday, China’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut bank reserve requirements, which would free up more capital for lending, following pledges to cut taxes and increase infrastructure spending to further stimulate its economy.

Economists say a shrinking pool of credit is one contributor to slower Chinese consumer spending, which has been fueled in recent years by taking on debt, and — as in the U.S. — people are unwilling to add to their debt burden in the face of economic uncertainty. “We also notice households have taken on some debt in recent years, and we think some of them might be reaching their limits,” Christopher said. “Households, we think, are feeling a little bit of a pinch,” he said.

Sears workers demand hardship fund as company teeters on edge of closing

As Sears Holdings Corp teeters on the brink of liquidation, its employees are pushing for a hardship fund they hope can replicate the success of bankrupt retailer Toys ‘R’ Us, whose workers collected $20 million in severance pay from its former owners.

Sears on Tuesday agreed to consider a revised takeover bid from Chairman Edward Lampert, temporarily staving off a liquidation that would have spelled the end of the company.

The latest attempt by Lampert follows a decade of revenue declines, hundreds of store closures, and years of deals in an attempt to turn around the company he put together in 2005 in an $11 billion deal.

Now, the retailer’s approximately 68,000 workers are pushing Lampert to set up a financial fund giving laid-off workers a week of pay for every year of service.

“If he (Eddie Lampert) can drum up the money for another takeover bid, he can find the resources to come up with a hardship fund,” said Onie Patrick, a laid-off Kmart employee who is part of the organizing effort.

The fight for a hardship fund has become the new normal in U.S. retail, signaling a growing push for severance pay and benefits in an industry that has witnessed a raft of store closures and bankruptcies.

Sears is among the dozens of retailers like Gymboree, Claire’s, Nine West, Payless Shoe Source and True that have filed for bankruptcy in the past two years. Others like Bon-Ton Department Stores and Toys ‘R’ Us have gone out of business.

In the case of Sears, if liquidation is announced, employees will have to file claims with the court for both lost wages and severance that was promised to them, said Jerry Glass, president of labor relations at consultancy F&H Solutions Group.

Sears employees will be competing for the limited funds available, with other creditors, investors, and management employees who will be retained to assist in the liquidation, he said.

Last year, private equity firms Bain Capital and KKR & Co Inc — which bought Toys ‘R’ Us in a 2005 leveraged buyout and loaded it with billions of dollars in debt before liquidating the chain in June 2018 — set aside $20 million for retail workers, who had demanded $75 million.

The fund was an unusual move for private-equity owners, who are not required under bankruptcy law to provide such assistance for ex-employees.

Rise Up Retail, a campaign from labor group Organization United for Respect which assisted Toys R Us employees, does not think that will be a barrier.

The group has sent a letter to Lampert and other creditors demanding financial assistance for workers. It is also pushing for state and federal legislation that would require bankrupt companies to make severance payments.

“Eddie Lampert has picked apart this company and this is about him taking financial responsibility for his actions and the impact that is going to have on thousands of families,” said Lily Wang, deputy director for Organization United for Respect’s Rise Up Retail campaign.

Jobs report is good news, but American workers still need skills training

With more and more Americans entering a booming labor market and unemployment hovering at 50-year lows, 2019 would seem to be the year of the worker. Wage growth has started to improve, hitting 3.2 percent over the past year, and government data shows there are more job openings than people looking for work.

Ironically, those conditions might mean a better year for those who already have jobs and might be considering a change. Those who have been without jobs, however, face the dual problems of missing skills and disadvantageous location. In addition, the lack of available workers could put the brakes on economic growth.

There’s been an employment boom, with January likely to be the hundredth consecutive month of job growth, according to Becky Frankiewicz, president of North America for ManpowerGroup. “We’re seeing growth across all sectors” and types of work, she told NBC News. In a recent survey, the company found that among the top positions needed were skilled building trades, drivers, and sales representatives. “These aren’t your future AI jobs.”

However, technology has again changed the nature of work. Increasingly, workers need specialized technical knowledge. “We don’t have enough labor and we don’t have enough with skilled capabilities,” Frankiewicz said.

The shortage is hitting many industries hard. The National Kitchen & Bath Association, an industry group for remodelers, surveyed its members and found that 74 percent had difficulty in recruiting labor. “Nearly 50 percent of our members say they’re having trouble even finding professionals” like architects, said CEO Bill Darcy. The organization’s members say the lack of available help causes delays on 30 percent of their jobs.

“We can’t remember a busier period,” said Joanie Courtney, a vice president of industrial staffing firm EmployBridge. “We have about 90,000 temporary employees working every single week,” including drivers, warehouses, and call centers.

Companies find they can’t necessarily do as they once did, which is look for people whose experience and knowledge are exact matches for corporate needs. Fewer high schools have classes that address many types of work that are in critical shortage. For example, Darcy says that only one person enters the building trades for each five that leave.

People who might go into high-tech manufacturing may not have a clear course of training to gain the necessary skills. And in some areas like food service and hospitality, automation increasingly replaces people at tasks. But the economy has been doing well under many measures and so education and training haven’t been a first priority for governments.

“This is when policymakers should think of broad retraining programs,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.

Until then, private industry will have to pick up the slack. “Three years ago, 12 percent of employers in the U.S. were providing more training and development,” Frankiewicz said. “Today, half are investing in learning platforms to build their talent pipeline.”

Corporations will have to look more at the changing nature of jobs and, rather than laying off people whose job has been outsourced or automated, prepare them for something else.

Furthermore, a focus on average numbers, like unemployment figures, can miss the variations that leave many without ready access to jobs. Across metropolitan areas, the percentage of jobs that don’t require a bachelor’s degree that are good or promising ranges from 35 percent in Spokane, Washington, to 9 percent in Washington, D.C., according to a recent Brookings Institution study.

Similarly, unemployment rates vary substantially by region. “While it’s great to see the official unemployment rate at 3.9 percent, this figure doesn’t tell the full story,” said Marie Trzupek Lynch, chief executive officer at Skills for Chicagoland’s Future, a public-private partnership that tries to place unemployed and underemployed people in jobs. The organization works in Chicago neighborhoods with unemployment as high as 16.4 percent.

Cities and states should focus on broader types of employment to extend economic improvement to every part of society, instead of trying to attract the big names such as Amazon.