Tariffs aren’t the only thing damaging China’s economy

As pivotal trade talks between delegations from the United States and China get under way this week, some economists are taking issue with President Donald Trump’s characterization of the impact that his trade sanctions have had on the Chinese economy.

Commerce Department Secretary Wilbur Ross said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday that the Trump tariffs were causing slower growth and raising the potential of political instability. He said China’s slowdown was a “big problem in their context of having a very big need to create millions of millions of jobs to hold down social unrest.”

However, “I would characterize the Chinese economy as slowing, for sure, but we wouldn’t blame it on the trade issue,” said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“I think China wants to get it resolved. Their economy’s not doing well,” Trump told reporters on Friday.

Trade and market expert say statements such as this lack two things: An acknowledgement that investor anxiety over the potential impact of a drawn-out trade war on the U.S. economy also contributed to market volatility that has sent equities plummeting over the past several weeks, and an understanding of the factors from which China’s economic woes stem.

“Today, both the U.S. and China are negatively affected by the current tensions,” said Ludovic Subran, global economist at Euler Hermes. “The big issue is really more the domestic economy and its transformation,” he said.

“There’s evidence that the latest round of economic reforms started to slow the economy before we got to the tariffs,” Christopher said. In terms of advancing a mix of expansionary and tightening policies, China is still tinkering with the balance. “They haven’t really found the right combination yet,” he said. “We think they’re still experimenting.”

A decrease in Chinese car sales is one key data point that has been misconstrued, China experts say. Automotive consulting firm ZoZoGo found that car sales in China reversed course last year and fell by 3 percent after roughly two decades of growth, and the country’s largest automotive trade group also has reported sinking sales figures in recent months.

Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that a temporary tax break spurred Chinese consumers to accelerate car-buying, and the subsequent falloff is a natural outcome of pulling forward demand.

Strong growth in Chinese exports to the U.S. for much of 2018 could indicate an acceleration of commerce as businesses scramble to get goods and manufacturing inputs over the border before any additional tariffs kick in.

“The trade flows alone don’t tell the whole story. Some of the strength of U.S. imports from China is the result of firms trying to ship products before more tariffs are applied, so it won’t last,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

As in the U.S., uncertainty over tariffs has weighed on the Chinese equity market as businesses hold off on investments until they know more about what the future holds. “But the trade war is not the main headwind that China’s economy is facing,” Williams said.

That headwind is tighter domestic financial policymaking, experts say. The Chinese government put sharp curbs on non-bank lending, which had fueled considerable growth in consumer spending, real estate investment and local infrastructure projects, but also ratcheted up the risk factor.

“I think the slowdown is primarily a result of the slowdown in credit,” Lardy said. “By the end of last year, credit was growing at the slowest pace in 10 years,” which has crimped spending, investment and weighed on the Chinese stock market.

More recently, Beijing has been walking back some of these tightening policies to promote a more stimulative economic environment: On Friday, China’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut bank reserve requirements, which would free up more capital for lending, following pledges to cut taxes and increase infrastructure spending to further stimulate its economy.

Economists say a shrinking pool of credit is one contributor to slower Chinese consumer spending, which has been fueled in recent years by taking on debt, and — as in the U.S. — people are unwilling to add to their debt burden in the face of economic uncertainty. “We also notice households have taken on some debt in recent years, and we think some of them might be reaching their limits,” Christopher said. “Households, we think, are feeling a little bit of a pinch,” he said.

Sears workers demand hardship fund as company teeters on edge of closing

As Sears Holdings Corp teeters on the brink of liquidation, its employees are pushing for a hardship fund they hope can replicate the success of bankrupt retailer Toys ‘R’ Us, whose workers collected $20 million in severance pay from its former owners.

Sears on Tuesday agreed to consider a revised takeover bid from Chairman Edward Lampert, temporarily staving off a liquidation that would have spelled the end of the company.

The latest attempt by Lampert follows a decade of revenue declines, hundreds of store closures, and years of deals in an attempt to turn around the company he put together in 2005 in an $11 billion deal.

Now, the retailer’s approximately 68,000 workers are pushing Lampert to set up a financial fund giving laid-off workers a week of pay for every year of service.

“If he (Eddie Lampert) can drum up the money for another takeover bid, he can find the resources to come up with a hardship fund,” said Onie Patrick, a laid-off Kmart employee who is part of the organizing effort.

The fight for a hardship fund has become the new normal in U.S. retail, signaling a growing push for severance pay and benefits in an industry that has witnessed a raft of store closures and bankruptcies.

Sears is among the dozens of retailers like Gymboree, Claire’s, Nine West, Payless Shoe Source and True that have filed for bankruptcy in the past two years. Others like Bon-Ton Department Stores and Toys ‘R’ Us have gone out of business.

In the case of Sears, if liquidation is announced, employees will have to file claims with the court for both lost wages and severance that was promised to them, said Jerry Glass, president of labor relations at consultancy F&H Solutions Group.

Sears employees will be competing for the limited funds available, with other creditors, investors, and management employees who will be retained to assist in the liquidation, he said.

Last year, private equity firms Bain Capital and KKR & Co Inc — which bought Toys ‘R’ Us in a 2005 leveraged buyout and loaded it with billions of dollars in debt before liquidating the chain in June 2018 — set aside $20 million for retail workers, who had demanded $75 million.

The fund was an unusual move for private-equity owners, who are not required under bankruptcy law to provide such assistance for ex-employees.

Rise Up Retail, a campaign from labor group Organization United for Respect which assisted Toys R Us employees, does not think that will be a barrier.

The group has sent a letter to Lampert and other creditors demanding financial assistance for workers. It is also pushing for state and federal legislation that would require bankrupt companies to make severance payments.

“Eddie Lampert has picked apart this company and this is about him taking financial responsibility for his actions and the impact that is going to have on thousands of families,” said Lily Wang, deputy director for Organization United for Respect’s Rise Up Retail campaign.

Turkey’s Erdogan criticizes John Bolton as rift between NATO allies deepens

ANKARA, Turkey — President Donald Trump’s plans for withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria were thrown into more uncertainty Tuesday as national security adviser John Bolton left the region after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to meet with him. Bolton’s mission to smooth a troop withdrawal with U.S. allies instead ended in only widening the rift with Turkey.

The path forward now appears more muddled than ever given Trump’s demand for assurances that Turkey protect Syrian Kurds after U.S. troops depart and Erdogan’s public snub of Bolton.

A senior administration official told NBC News that Trump thought he had gotten a commitment from Erdogan in a Dec. 23 phone call that Turkey would protect the Syrian Kurds, who have been a key U.S. ally in the fight against the Islamic State, after the American troops leave.

But a defiant Erdogan on Tuesday declined to meet with Bolton, who was in Turkey for talks about the withdrawal. In a speech to his political party, Erdogan said that Bolton had made a “serious mistake” in saying no U.S. troops would leave northeast Syria without such a commitment.

Erdogan said that Turkey would never compromise on the issue of the Syrian Kurds, or YPG Kurdish militia, which Turkey sees as a terrorist organization and part of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party.

Bolton met for more than two hours earlier in the day with his Turkish counterpart, Ibrahim Kalin, the senior administration official, who was at the meeting, said. During that meeting, Bolton presented Kalin with a list of five conditions the U.S. has for withdrawing troops from Syria — items agreed to by Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford and James Jeffrey, the U.S. envoy for Syria and the fight against ISIS, according to the senior administration official.

The list includes “a negotiated solution to Turkish security concerns,” the official said, and stipulates: “We want the protection of all civilians, particularly local minority populations. We’ll cooperate with Turkey on de-conflicting the airspace over northeast Syria. The United States opposes any mistreatment of opposition forces who fought with us against ISIS.”

Turkey rejected the proposal.

“I think it’s fair to say that the United States stuck by the president’s request as reflected in these points that the Kurds, that the opposition forces that fought with us, not be mistreated,” the U.S. official said. “And the Turks stuck by their position that the PYD and the YPG are terrorist groups and they’re free to go after them.” (The PYD, or Democratic Union Party, is the political wing of the YPG.)

Kalin told Bolton that Erdogan had committed Turkey to not taking offensive action in Syria while U.S. forces were there, the official said.

The official said Erdogan’s speech on Tuesday was not at odds with the commitment Trump thought he had gotten from Erdogan during their Dec. 23 phone call.

National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis said Erdogan called Kalin during their meeting and told him to send his regards to Bolton. However, Erdogan said he wouldn’t be able to spend any time with Bolton because he was headed to Parliament to deliver a speech.

A meeting between Bolton and Erdogan was never confirmed, a U.S. official said, but administration officials had said one was expected.